Here’s a week-by-week preview of the summer box office including US, International and total grosses. I’ve indicated in the total gross section which movies I think will crack the top 100 all time and where I think they’ll rank when all is said and done. I’m not including opening weekend, because I wouldn’t dare rob you of your cherished weekly Box Office predictions. I’ve listed my predicted top 5 at the bottom.
(Also, I’m not including Wolverine in the mix b/c I couldn’t get this done in time; I don’t think it’ll be in the top 5 for the summer anyway, so no harm no foul).
(Also, also, you'll notice that I'm only tracking all time worldwide status - don't worry, I'm not a communist or anything, I just like the big numbers).
May 8
Film: Star Trek
US: $240
International: $285
Total: $525 (#59 All Time)
May 15
Film: Angels and Demons
US: $195
International: $435
Total: $630 (#38 All Time)
May 22
Film: Night at the Museum 2
US: $210
International: $350
Total: $560 (#51 All Time)
May 22
Film: Terminator 4
US: $135
International: $280
Total: $415 (#100 All Time)
May 29
Film: Up
US: $155
International: $220
Total: $375
June 5
Film: Land Of The Lost
US: $115
International: $90
Total: $205
June 12
Film: Taking Of Pelham 123
US: $75
International: $110
Total: $185
June 19
Film: Year One
US: $85
International: $40
Total: $125
June 26
Film: Transformers 2
US: $270
International: $340
Total: $610 (#42 All Time)
July 1
Film: Public Enemies
US: $160
International: $115
Total: $285
July 10
Film: Bruno
US: $115
International: $140
Total: $255
July 15
Film: Harry Potter 6
US: $295
International: $650
Total: $945 (#7 All Time)
July 24
Fuck July 24
July 31
Film: Funny People
US: $130
International: $75
Total: $205
August 7
Film: G.I. Joe
US: $130
International: $85
Total: $215
Jericho’s Top 5 for Summer 2009
1. Harry Potter 6: $945
2. Angels and Demons: $630
3. Transformers 2: $610
4. Night at the Museum 2: $560
5. Star Trek: $525
A few thoughts:
- May has a chance to be the biggest month of all time with 6 major films opening in the same frame. The biggest month in history is July 2007 with more than $1.3 billion (the month saw Transformers, Harry Potter 5 and the Simpsons Movie open, with carry over from Ratatouille, Die Hard 4 and Knocked Up). Considering that 4 of my top 5 open in May, with other films like Terminator and Wolverine also dropping, May has a great shot at being the highest grossing ever.
- If Angels and Demons performs the way it should, then Tom Hanks will pass both Harrison Ford and Eddie Murphy to be the biggest box office star of all time. This movie will be his 15th to make at least $100m, his 10th to make more than $150m and his 6th to make more than $200m. Un fucking believable.
- Do you realize that the top 100 domestic films of all time include 29 films with more than $300m and 89 films with more than $200m? In fact, the lowest grossing movie in the top 100 is Gladiator with $187m – which means that in order to crack the top 100 a film can’t just be a hit, it has to be a massive, massive hit. We’re heading towards a future where every film in the top 100 will be $200m+. To wit, the past three movie years have had an average of 7.5 movies make more than $200m. Which means that mid-way through 2010, the top 100 will be completely full of $200m+ films – isn’t that incredible?
JR
