Popular Post
Showing posts with label box office. Show all posts
Showing posts with label box office. Show all posts

WOW


*Note, this post was originally posted at 8:58am with projected numbers - it was updated at 3:15 to reflect the official numbers.

As my prom date said, “I knew it would be big, but I had no idea it would be that big.”

Just as I surprised my date with a stretch limo, Transformers shocked the box office with a full anal assault. Consider the following.

Opening Weekend:
My prediction: $105m (#9 all time)
Actual: $109m (#7 all time)

I missed by $4m, but I’m still giving myself an A+ for that one. You should too.

Opening 5 days (including Weds and Thurs):
My prediction: $148m (#7 all time)
Actual: $200m (#2 all time)

There are some amazing numbers on this list, but the 5-day gross is by far the most impressive. We all knew this movie would have a big weekend but no one could have predicted how well this movie was going to perform on Wednesday and Thursday. Transformers 2 absolutely shattered the record for biggest Wednesday of all time with $61m - $15m more than Harry Potter 5 pulled two summers ago. Considering that Transformers’ Wednesday is not only the biggest Wednesday of all time, but it actually ranks #2 for the biggest single day of all time, just missing the Dark Knight’s $67m opening – which was on a Friday, btw. That’s fucking incredible. The movie followed up with $28m on Thursday (the 4th biggest Thursday, btw) for a ludicrous $89m heading into the weekend.

Worldwide Opening Weekend (US + Int.):
My prediction: $240m (#7 all time)
Actual: $390m (#1 all time)

$200m domestically + $190m internationally = $390m and the biggest international opening of all time. Incredible numbers.

So if you’re scoring at home:

Opening Weekend: #7
Opening 5-day gross: #2
Worldwide Opening: #1
Biggest Wednesday: #1
Biggest Thursday: #4
Biggest Opening Day: #2
All time domestic: #91 (and counting)
All time worldwide: #112 (and counting)

Where does it go from here? Well, even though the movie is mirroring the early success of the Dark Knight, it lacks the staying power of that film to sustain this pace. Because it opened so massively, it’ll definitely make enough noise over the next few weeks to finish in the top #25 domestically and top #30 worldwide, but I’m guessing the movie has peaked and will start falling from here. I bet we see a 65-75% decline next weekend (which is still around $40m, but still…). That’s really just picking nits at this point, $201m after five days is fucking ridiculous. Congrats, Megan Fox’s lips, tits and slutty facial expressions, you did it.



JR

Summer Box Office Review…Before Transformers Destroys It


8 weeks into a fairly underwhelming box office season, let’s recap a few of the high and lowlights.

My best prediction: That Terminator 4 would tank domestically
Now, $120m might not look bad on paper, but do you realize this movie cost $200m to make? If you were a studio exec, would you green light this movie at $50m? Throw in Christian Bale’s rant, the fact that Arnold is fucking up California rather than bad guys and the massive, massive budget and this movie smelled like asshole from the word go. Granted it’s performing well overseas with a little over $200m, but I bet there’s a few unemployed studio execs that aren’t happy with that $120.


My worst prediction: That Up would be Pixar’s first lackluster performer
Note to self, never bet against Pixar. Never. The movie opens with $68, follows up with a monster $44 in its second weekend, $30 in its third and now sits at $231, good for #62 all time. Through four weeks, Up is performing on par with Finding Nemo (the studio’s biggest hit with $340m) and should end up being the studio’s 2nd biggest movie. Shows what I know.


Best Performance: Star Trek
The reinvention is working. With $240m domestically (good for #55 all time) and another $125 internationally, the movie is the early winner of the 2009 box office (for a few more days anyway) and has re-energized a franchise that seemed deader than dead 5 years ago.


Worst Performance: Imagine That
I’m tempted to mention Angels and Demons ($130m to date, $150m production cost), or the aforementioned T4 ($120m, $200m cost) but we have to give special attention to Eddie’s latest turd. $12m on a $55m budget, now that’s stinky. No one takes a dump on celluloid like Eddie Murphy, huh?


Biggest “Sleeper”: The Hangover
One of my biggest media pet peeves: when they completely over-report the possibility of something happening and then act completely shocked when it happens. If ESPN is going to lead with “Cowboys Considering Cutting Ties with TO” for the entire month of February, they can’t say “In Shocking Move, Cowboys Say Adios to TO” when it comes true in March – that shit just doesn’t work. The Hangover is the same way. For months people mentioned how this looked like the sleeper of the summer, now that it’s true, they’re acting shocked about the same thing. Oh well, with $160m after three weeks, this movie is on track for right around $230m, eclipsing Beverly Hills Cop as the biggest R-rated comedy of all time, that’s cool no matter how you slice it.


Best International Performer: Angels and Demons
When the movie opened, I mentioned that the real value for this franchise is overseas; Angels is continuing that trend with $330m abroad and only $130m here. The movie is #79 all time internationally (and should end up between #60-65) but is only #254 domestically. Crazy.

Enough dry humping, let’s slap on an extra ribbed for her pleasure and get this party started. Here’s what I’m predicting for Transformers:


Opening Weekend: $105m (#9 all time)
Opening 5 days (including Weds and Thurs): $148m (#7 all time)
Worldwide Opening Weekend (US and Int.): $240m (#7 all time)

I fucking hate this move, but I can’t fucking wait to watch it open.



JR

I Owe Him a Quarter

Look, Panda, I get paid in Panda babies for this, right?


Box Office Predictions for 5/22/09

(I’m including the Monday tallies as well)

1.
Movie: Night of the Museum 2
Prediction: $83 million

2.
Movie: Terminator 4
Prediction: $71 million

3.
Movie: Star Trek
Prediction: $36 million

4.
Movie: Angels and Demons
Prediction: $27 million

- With Star Trek, Wolverine and Angels & Demons starting the summer season off, there’s been nothing out there for kids and families. Enter Night of The Museum 2, expect this movie to open big.

- Look, I like Stiller as much as the next guy, but I think it’s worth noting that this is his third sequel in five years (joining Meet the Parents 2 and Madagascar 2). With word that Meet the Parents 3 just went into production, it’s safe to say that he’s officially reached “hey, let’s make Indy 4” sell out status. (P.S. Stiller apparently already trademarked that term and I now owe him a quarter).

- Sometimes my judgment gets clouded by my opinion, and here’s my opinion about Terminator 4: who in the fucking fuck wants to this fucking pile of fuck? With that said, I feel in my heart that this movie will under perform, but it does have pretty good buzz heading into the weekend and is a franchise that always seems to open well. So it’s really anyone’s guess here. I’m going with $71 but wouldn’t be surprised to see this in the 80s.

- Terminator 4 is directed by a dude who goes by McG making this film the first in the franchise to a) not star Arnold and b) be directed by a cheeseburger

- Star Trek continues to perform well, actually outselling Angels & Demons throughout this week. A weekend in the mid $30s puts this in the top 100 all time.

- Happy Memorial Day, everybody. Mags and I are both out tomorrow, so we'll get back at ya on Tuesday.



JR

Just a bit outside...


Box Office Results for 5/15/2009

1.
Angels & Demons
Prediction: $57 million
Actual: $46 million

2.
Star Trek
Prediction: $39 million
Actual: $43 million


- Not my greatest weekend by any stretch of the imagination, missing Angels & Demons by $11m and Star Trek by $4m. I can promise you one thing, a lot of good will come out of this. You will never see any blogger in the entire country study movies as hard as I will study for the rest of the movie season. You will never see someone push Box Office Mojo as hard as I will push it for the rest of the summer. You will never see a blog get as many box office predictions right as this site will for the rest of the season. God Bless.

- I said on Friday that I didn’t really have logic for my Angels & Demons prediction – well, I did, sorta. Da Vinci had sold 81 million copies when it was released into theaters, A&D had sold 60 million as of last Friday – so I guessed that the movie returns would echo the books sales and come in around $20 million less. I was wrong. Why didn’t I mention this on Friday? That’s easy; I wanted to talk shit about how fucking smart I was after the fact. I’ll give you a totally insane and illogical analogy. Let’s say you’re at a bar and you overhear a PYT talking about how bad she feels that her grandma is single and isn’t dating anyone. So you strut over and very coolly ask her to smell your finger. When she does and looks at you quizzically, you very slyly add, “that’s Judi Dench, she rode this all day.” Maybe it works, maybe but it doesn’t, but you are completely revered by your buddies if it does. So yes, my sin is vanity, I wanted to be revered and used Judi Dench’s pussy to do it.

- As I mentioned on Friday however, the real draw for A&D is overseas, the movie opened with almost $105m internationally, a massive haul. It should easily get to $300m and right around #50 all time.

- Star Trek is kicking ass right now – a very miniscule 42% drop on its way to $43 million and almost $150 million through ten days. The international #s are starting to pick up a little too - $70 million through two weeks for almost $220m total.

- Goodbye Gladiator from the top 100 all-time and welcome, Monsters vs. Aliens, with $191m. Other movies in trouble of dropping out this year, Grease, Men in Black II and Toy Story.

- This week brings Terminator 4 and Night at the Museum 2. Two movies that prove one of the oldest theories about how movies get approved / made in Hollywood: a bunch of executives have an enormous circle jerk around a pile of DVDs on the floor – if two of them nut on the same one, they make a sequel. If three of them squirt on the same one, they make a prequel. And if someone inexplicably rips his dick off and eats it they make Terminator 4.



JR

And Hanks Rules All

Yeah, but what's fun about playing with a building?


Box Office Prediction for 5/15/2009

1.
Angels & Demons
Prediction: $57 million

2.
Star Trek
Prediction: $39 million


- My logic for Angels & Demons? Actually I don’t really have any – just playing a hunch here. Da Vinci Code opened to $77 two summers ago (on its way to $760 worldwide), but Angels & Demons doesn’t have nearly the hype or the cache (yes, I just used cache on A&M) of its predecessor. So it won’t repeat that success, but I still think it opens big - not Double D, $77m big - but $57m, a nice handful.

- The real value for this film is overseas – Da Vinci racked up $540 internationally, only 12 movies have made more outside of the US (The Dark Knight made $468m by comparison). So whatever the movie makes here is just more syrup to pour on their enormous pile of money waffles.

- The bigger battle here is not Da Vinci vs. Angels & Demons, it’s Hanks’ mullet (seen here) vs. Hanks’ soccer mom / Diane Lane cut (here). If something crazy happens, and Angels shoots past Da Vinci on the all time list this will be a major blow for mullets worldwide.

- Side note: hasn’t the term “the Pope is not very happy with X” lost all meaning at this point? What movie / star / band / food group is his eminence “pooping his pants thrilled with” at the moment? The Pope is not thrilled with yogurt right now.

- I alluded to some of Hanks’ BO numbers in my overall preview post a few weeks back, but two other amazing things about his career: 1) do you realize this guy has been a star since day 1? His first movie appearance ever was the lead role in Splash in 1984. You look at the IMDB pages of Ford, Will Smith, Tom Cruise; they all have bit parts in small movies before they became stars. Hanks has been a leading man his entire film career – spanning 34 movies over 25 years, incredible.

- 2) Has anyone made more rewatchable movies? Hanks isn’t only the biggest movie star ever, he’s probably the biggest cable star as well. I dare you to flip away when you find Cast Away, Forrest Gump, Turner and Hooch, Big, Saving Private Ryan, Toy Story or The Money Pit on TV. It’s not possible.



JR

Summer Box Office Preview


Here’s a week-by-week preview of the summer box office including US, International and total grosses. I’ve indicated in the total gross section which movies I think will crack the top 100 all time and where I think they’ll rank when all is said and done. I’m not including opening weekend, because I wouldn’t dare rob you of your cherished weekly Box Office predictions. I’ve listed my predicted top 5 at the bottom.

(Also, I’m not including Wolverine in the mix b/c I couldn’t get this done in time; I don’t think it’ll be in the top 5 for the summer anyway, so no harm no foul).

(Also, also, you'll notice that I'm only tracking all time worldwide status - don't worry, I'm not a communist or anything, I just like the big numbers).

May 8
Film: Star Trek
US: $240
International: $285
Total: $525 (#59 All Time)

May 15
Film: Angels and Demons
US: $195
International: $435
Total: $630 (#38 All Time)

May 22
Film: Night at the Museum 2
US: $210
International: $350
Total: $560 (#51 All Time)

May 22
Film: Terminator 4
US: $135
International: $280
Total: $415 (#100 All Time)

May 29
Film: Up
US: $155
International: $220
Total: $375

June 5
Film: Land Of The Lost
US: $115
International: $90
Total: $205

June 12
Film: Taking Of Pelham 123
US: $75
International: $110
Total: $185

June 19
Film: Year One
US: $85
International: $40
Total: $125

June 26
Film: Transformers 2
US: $270
International: $340
Total: $610 (#42 All Time)

July 1
Film: Public Enemies
US: $160
International: $115
Total: $285

July 10
Film: Bruno
US: $115
International: $140
Total: $255

July 15
Film: Harry Potter 6
US: $295
International: $650
Total: $945 (#7 All Time)

July 24
Fuck July 24

July 31
Film: Funny People
US: $130
International: $75
Total: $205

August 7
Film: G.I. Joe
US: $130
International: $85
Total: $215


Jericho’s Top 5 for Summer 2009
1. Harry Potter 6: $945
2. Angels and Demons: $630
3. Transformers 2: $610
4. Night at the Museum 2: $560
5. Star Trek: $525


A few thoughts:
- May has a chance to be the biggest month of all time with 6 major films opening in the same frame. The biggest month in history is July 2007 with more than $1.3 billion (the month saw Transformers, Harry Potter 5 and the Simpsons Movie open, with carry over from Ratatouille, Die Hard 4 and Knocked Up). Considering that 4 of my top 5 open in May, with other films like Terminator and Wolverine also dropping, May has a great shot at being the highest grossing ever.

- If Angels and Demons performs the way it should, then Tom Hanks will pass both Harrison Ford and Eddie Murphy to be the biggest box office star of all time. This movie will be his 15th to make at least $100m, his 10th to make more than $150m and his 6th to make more than $200m. Un fucking believable.

- Do you realize that the top 100 domestic films of all time include 29 films with more than $300m and 89 films with more than $200m? In fact, the lowest grossing movie in the top 100 is Gladiator with $187m – which means that in order to crack the top 100 a film can’t just be a hit, it has to be a massive, massive hit. We’re heading towards a future where every film in the top 100 will be $200m+. To wit, the past three movie years have had an average of 7.5 movies make more than $200m. Which means that mid-way through 2010, the top 100 will be completely full of $200m+ films – isn’t that incredible?


JR

We Are All Witnesses

Because it doesn't matter what the theme is,
pics of Lebron dunking are always good


As a box office enthusiast / junkie / dork I’ve been following the Dark Knight with my jaw on the floor. The opening weekend record was a big one, however, the nature of movies, particularly from a marketing standpoint, has changed so much in the last 8-10 years, that the opening weekend record has a lost a little of its panache. Movies are built to open big and then fade quickly – with the theatrical run really only serving as a glorified marketing campaign for the DVD release. Consider this: since 2001, 11 movies have opened with more than $100 million, 30 have opened with $70 or more and the record for largest opening weekend has been broken 4 times.

With that said, take absolutely nothing away from The Dark Knight’s new opening weekend record, any time you can open with $158 it’s pretty fucking incredible. But what’s been truly amazing about Dark Knight is its staying power – the movie has literally broken a record every single day it’s been out. Right now, the best comparison from a box office standpoint is Pirates 2, although there really is no precedent for what we’re seeing with Dark Knight. Pirates 2 opened with $135, made $195 in its first seven days, finishing up with $425 million. The Dark Knight opened with $158 and made $239 in its first seven days – where will it end up? I still don’t think it’ll break Titanic’s record of $600 – but there’s the very real possibility that it crosses $500.

Consider the following records we’ve seen fall in the last 10 days:

- Fastest film to $200 million – took 5 days, Pirates 2 took 8
- Fastest film to $250 million – took 8 days, Pirates 2 took 10
- Fastest film to $300 million – took 10 days, Pirates 2 took 16
- Fastest to $350 and $400 will follow in the next few days (good chance it gets to $350 by Friday and $400 mid-next week, which would obliterate the standing records)
- Highest grossing week - $239 million in its first 7 days – including an abso fucking lutely ridiculous $81 million Mon-Thurs
- Biggest second weekend - $75 million

There are more, but I think you get the point. Doesn’t it seem like only a few weeks ago we were wondering if Indy 4 could pass Iron Man as the biggest hit of the summer? Well, Dark Knight passed Indy after only 10 days, so to quote the effete cop from Lebowksi, “I guess we can close the book on that one.”

A few other box office notes:

- Step Brothers opened with a very solid $30 – anyone seen this? Any good? I’m a little Ferrelled-out at the moment, but all I really need is a little push and I’m in the theater. Anyone?

- Wait, they made another X Files movie? Why the fuck did they do that? Before they named the sequel: “X Files: I want to believe” – do you think they considered: “X Files: Please see this, Gillian Anderson is practically homeless”

- Hancock has now rung up $470 million worldwide and counting – do you ever think that Tiger Woods and Will Smith are the same person? Tiger’s amazing, because he’s absolutely un-hateable – it’s impossible not to root for him when he’s walking down 18 with a one shot lead. Will Smith is the same way, I want every movie he makes to pull down $500 – have we ever seen them in the same room?

- Mummy 3 opens this weekend; can you feel the excitement? “Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor.” Much cooler than the original title, "Mummy 3: Brendan Fraser is fucking laughing at you. Laughing.”

- Has anyone seen the trailer for the animated Star Wars movie coming out this summer? Click here if you haven’t. I know I’ve said this before a million times, but let’s make it one million and one, what the fuck is wrong with George Lucas?. I mean, the animation looks like shit! This is how we’re going out? Star Wars redefined everything and 25 years later Lucas puts out a fucking puppet show? The Star Wars franchise is like one of those 70 yr old actresses that has had so much work done they don’t even look like a human anymore. You get a face-lift, then botox, then a cheek graph or whatever the fuck, flash forward five years and you look like a fat baby’s kneecap. Thanks, George. You're ruining my childhood. Why not frame Ken Griffey Jr for steroids and somehow take the fun out of masturbation so you can go for the clean sweep. Dick face.

A Few Dark Knight Thoughts


A Few Dark Knight Thoughts…

Ladies and gentleman, your new opening weekend champ, The Dark Knight! We won’t have final numbers until later today, but the estimate is $155 million, passing Spider Man 3’s $150. Just mind boggling numbers. The question now is how long can Dark Knight keep this going – Spidey 3 dropped over 60% in its second weekend, topping out at $336, good for #12 all time – where will Dark Knight end up? Top 25 all time is all but guaranteed, can it get into the top 10? Stay tuned…

What a great fucking movie. I’m guessing most of you have seen it already, but for those who haven’t, do me a favor, be patient and wait to see it on IMAX. Just trust me on this. I ask so little, I demanded you see Once and remember how fucking good that was? I told you that Shaun Alexander had a talking vagina and remember how spot fucking on I was? Trust me, friends, wait for the IMAX.

All of the praise so far has been heaped on Bale, Eckhart and Ledger – and it should be, they’re fucking fantastic – but how about Gary Oldman as Jim Gordon? Much less heralded and a much more thankless role but the character is absolutely crucial to the story, he’s the glue that makes the whole thing work. Well done, sir.

This actually brings up a different point, the fact that more and more talented, high-brow and acclaimed actors and filmmakers are gravitating towards comic book movies. This is a fascinating trend with several little sub-trends connected to it – namely that audiences are tired of standard action fare and are demanding more from their action movies – as a lifelong comic book fan (particularly Batman), I couldn’t be happier about this. There’s so much context and subtext to these characters and stories and that’s finally starting to come out in the film versions. For example, and this is dorky but stay with me - I grew up reading Batman books and I remember being in ninth grade and reading Hamlet for the first time and thinking “that’s Batman.” Spoiled, aloof, rich kids who lost their fathers and dedicated their lives to revenge – only to find that they had become so consumed with the “idea” of revenge they had created this insatiable need that actually had nothing to do with their parents – basically they’re angry b/c they’re so angry and keep fighting b/c they realize they can never go back to the person they used to be – does that make sense? See, I knew you guys would like that. You know who didn’t like it? My ninth grade English teacher who gave me a C+ b/c she thought it was sacrilegious to compare one of the greatest characters in literature to a superhero from a “child’s” story. Well, guess what, ninth grade English teacher? Go see the Dark Knight and then take a big healthy bite of my asshole.

One last thought, basically everything that could and should be said about Heath Ledger has been said at this point and by people much more eloquent than myself, but if I may:

- I think I speak for everyone when I say that his death has been 100x more impactful than any other celebrity. His age, his daughter, his overwhelming talent, the unexpectedness of the whole thing – it’s been 7 months and it still feels fucking wrong.

- It’s an amazing thing to watch an actor become a great actor right in front of your eyes. With movies like The Patriot and A Knight’s Tale we knew Heath was ridiculously handsome but really had no idea if he was talented or not. If the age of the trashy magazine and gossip show has proven anything it’s that you don’t really need to be talented to have a long, healthy career. Look at Jessica Alba and Ryan Phillippe (who is quickly proving to be the Keanu Reeves of his generation – one of those guys who keeps making movies and keeps making headlines even though everyone knows he’s awful. In fact, we might go as far to say that the Keanu “puzzled look” is being challenged by the Phillippe “frown” as the predominant bad actor trick). We put Heath in this category prematurely, then he makes Monster’s Ball and we all said, “wait a minute, is there something there?” Then Brokeback and we go “hold on, hold on, is this guy really that good?” And then everything crests with the Joker, when we all collectively realized Heath was on his way to becoming one of the best actors of his generation.

- With that said, thank God he is so unrecognizable in The Dark Knight. Honestly, if the movie started and the credits said “and introducing Bill Mankoewitz as the Joker” we all would’ve walked out saying, “man, that Bill Mankoewitz is a great actor.” It’s such a transformation you really have no idea who it is, and we should all be thankful for that.

- You know how every great performance has that “splash of cold water moment?” You get so engrossed and captivated by the character you kind of forget you’re watching an actor acting – then he does something that is so unbelievable it snaps you back to reality for a moment, kind of like someone throwing cold water on you while you’re sleeping. Think of the church, “give me the blood, Eli” scene in There Will Be Blood, when you think to yourself “holy fucking shit, I’m watching something that will be talked about for years.” With Heath, it was the scene after the hospital blows up – he doesn’t have any dialogue, it’s just the way that he walks from the door to the bus. That weird limp / strut / saunter that he created for the character that snaps you back and makes you think “wow!” as his talent reaches out of the screen and fucking smacks you in the face.

- This whole section is basically just a long, ambling preface for this: what a fucking shame. What an incredibly, incredibly bright and wasted future. Fucking sucks, man, we all got robbed on this one.

Box Office Recap: 6/30/08


1.
Wall-E
Actual: $63 million

2.
Wanted
Actual: $51 million

Was a little too busy to post predictions last week, but still wanted to do a quick recap and make a few observations on the box office as we wrap up June and head into July.

- Another Pixar movie, another metacritic score in the 90s, another $60+ opening. Just incredible. Pixar is kind of like Radiohead, they’ve been so good for so long that every time they put out an album you think, “Ok, maybe this is the one that will suck.” But it never happens; they hit everything out of the park. What's more, Pixar has officially entered the “Spielberg zone” – when you see a trailer for a movie, if it starts with something to the effect of, “from the mind of Steven Spielberg," you immediately know it’ll be good and want to see it. Think about the way Wall-E was marketed, no dialogue, no story really, just a cute little robot chirping around picking up garbage – and it still opens with $60+. What an amazing brand.

- Wanted opened with a massive, massive $51 – making back 2/3 of its $75 million budget on the first weekend and also registering: the 2nd biggest non #1 opening weekend of all time and the 7th highest opening for an R rated movie. Major numbers from a movie that no one really knew what to make of a few weeks back. Also, all the talk so far this summer has been about Iron Man and Indiana – but how about Morgan Freeman and Angelina Jolie? With Wanted as well as Dark Knight (Freeman, looking like a sure bet for $250+) and Fuck You Panda (Jolie, currently at $180 and holding strong) – they look like they’ll have the biggest summers for an actor and an actress, crazy, huh? Morgan Freeman has really had an amazing career; do you realize that Wanted and Dark Knight will be his 11th and 12th $100 million films? To put that in perspective, Murphy, Ford and Hanks, the three biggest stars in terms of overall domestic box office, have 13, 11 and 15 $100 million films respectively. In any list of top box office stars of all time, Freeman is right there – crazy.

A couple of things I’m wondering:
- Will Indy eventually top Iron Man for biggest movie of the summer? It looked definite a few weeks ago but Indy is slowing down
- Will Hancock be a bigger hit than Batman?
- Will Batman be the last movie of the summer to cross $150 million? Look at the release schedule post Dark Knight – pretty weak.
- Is Angelina a bigger overall star than Brad? I think the difference between them is pretty negligible, but the Oscar might push the debate in Angelina’s favor…

Indy update:

Indy 4
Production: $185
Marketing / distribution: $115
Total Budget: $300
Worldwide Gross to Date: $713
Net Profit: $413

The Players:
Paramount: $139
Ford: $91
Spielberg: $91
Lucas: $91

Box Office Recap


1.
Hulk
Prediction: $48 million
Actual: $55 million

2.
The Happening
Prediction: $29 million
Actual: $30 million

Hulk exceeded my expectations, opening with a very solid $55 domestically and about $85 million worldwide – with a budget of $150 though it’s got a little work to do to make a profit. Ang Lee’s Hulk (Otherwise known as the Hulk movie that the current Hulk movie is pretending never happened) opened with $63 but cooled significantly, finishing with a very pedestrian $132. Will be interesting to see how this movie holds with some big fish coming up in next few weeks…

The Happening opened with a very solid $30 million, earning back half of its production budget in the first frame. The reviews for this movie are HORRIBLE so am dubious of its long-term strength, but with about $50 million worldwide in week 1 should continue M. Night’s track record of profitability.

Will be another fun Friday with Get Smart opening up against the Love Guru, until then…

As Indy inches closer to being in the top 30 all time, let’s recap where everyone stands:

Indy 4
Production: $185
Marketing / distribution: $115
Total Budget: $300
Worldwide Gross to Date: $634
Net Profit: $334

The Players:
Paramount: $129
Ford: $68
Spielberg: $68
Lucas: $68

Hulk v. The Happening


1.
Hulk
$48 million

2.
The Happening
$29 million

Interesting slate of movies this week: Hulk v. The Happening.

Hulk comes five years after the widely panned Ang Lee / Eric Bana version, do people want to give this franchise another shot? Are there still Hulk fans out there? Is this movie just a weird stopgap between Iron Man and The Dark Knight? How much is Edward Norton being paid for this? I’m dying to hear about his deal, does anyone know of a site where you can track this kind of stuff? Also, is it just me, or is Hulk the most phallic thing of all time? He gets aroused and he gets bigger, isn’t that what a penis does?

The Happening. I have tons and tons of thoughts on this one, so much so that I’m going to bullets for this:

- Three weeks ago, the studio announced it was opening this as an R-rated movie, the first time an M. Night movie hasn’t been PG-13. This could mean a number of things obviously, but my take is that they saw the movie and thought it was absolutely awful, knew they’d never make their money back and decided to pump up the shock value and position the movie as a gory, gruesome Saw-like movie.

- There's this strange conception that all of M Night's movies are colossal failures. However, when you look at the numbers this is totally false. First off, his movies always make money; Lady In the Water was his first movie not have a worldwide net higher than $100 million (yes you read that correctly) Due to a combination of factors, mostly b/c a) his movies are fairly cheap and b) he’s still riding the Sixth Sense wave – M. Night is actually one of the most successful directors of the last ten years. Take a look at this list plotting the worldwide gross of his films vs. production budgets:

Lady In the Water
Budget: $70 million
Worldwide Gross: $72 million
Net: $2 million

The Village
Budget: $60 million
Worldwide Gross: $256 million
Net: $196 million

Signs
Budget: $72 million
Worldwide Gross: $408 million
Net: $336 million

Unbreakable
Budget: $75 million
Worldwide Gross: $248 million
Net: $173 million

The Sixth Sense
Budget: $40 million
Worldwide Gross: $673 million
Net: $633 million

Totals (for 5 movies)
Budget: $317 million
Worldwide Gross: $1.66 billion
Net: $1.3 billion

- $1.3 billion! The fucking guy has made the studios more than a billion dollars since 1999! I remember reading the story about M. Night throwing a tantrum when Disney didn’t like his script for Lady in The Water and demanding out of his deal so he could bring the movie to Warner Bros, and thinking, what a fucking prick this guy is. But look at the numbers, the guy made a billion dollars for Disney and they still don’t trust his value, no wonder he stormed off.

- The thing with M. Night is that more than anything else he’s a victim of his own success. Not only was Sixth Sense a massive, massive hit – over $600 million net! – but it was nominated for a bunch of Oscars and everyone crowned M. Night the new Spielberg. So everything he does is judged by those accolades and that kind of success is nearly impossible to replicate (unless of course you are actually Spielberg who could direct a Cheetos commercial and make $100 million)

- Now, with all that said, I think the Happening looks absolutely awful. Lady in the Water looked horrible and the Village is in my top ten worst movies off all time. However, his name is still good, the R factor will help, and horror movies always seem to open well – The Strangers opened with 20+ a few weeks ago – something that M. Night should easily be able to top. I’m giving him $29 but wouldn't be surprised with high 30s, low 40s

- I know I say this every time he’s in a movie, but are we just supposed to just forget about the Funky Bunch? I mean, are we really supposed to take this guy seriously? I’ll never get this…

Box Office Recap: 6/09/08



1.
Fuck You Panda
Estimate: $53 million
Actual: $60 million

2.
Zohan
Estimate: $36 million
Actual: $38 million

3.
Indy 4
Estimate: $26 million
Actual: $23 million

4.
SATC
Estimate: $28 million
Actual: $21 million

Pretty standard stuff. Fuck You and Zohan exceeded expectations, Indy’s 3rd week passed SATC’s 2nd and Sandler had his ninth $30+ opening, just narrowly missing having his 5th $40+.


As Indy inches closer to $600 million worldwide, let’s recap where everyone stands:

Indy 4
Production: $185
Marketing / distribution: $115
Total Budget: $300
Worldwide Gross to Date: $579
Net Profit: $279

The Players:
Paramount: $122.5
Ford: $52
Spielberg: $52
Lucas: $52

Fuck You Panda Will Definitely Mess With the Zohan



1.
Fuck You Panda
Estimate: $53 million

2.
Zohan
Estimate: $36 million

3.
Wah Wah, Big never understands me he doesn’t listen why doesn’t he talk to me I always ask him questions but he never answers he just sits there with this glazed look on his face but not the good glazed like a doughnut I love doughnuts no his glaze is more like the winter 2001 marc Jacobs line member that one the pinks were so bright I thought that a horse had literally kicked me in the uterus which wouldn’t bother Big at all since he thinks my uterus is just a receptacle for his man spoo he is so selfish like that so one sided so obtuse which really got me thinking was dating the new mud puddle and were we all just walking around with golashes not from the water that comes up but from the tears that drop down was the weather channel the new dating channel?
Estimate: $28 million

4.
Indy 4
Estimate: $26 million


I was hoping that Fuck You and Zohan would be more of a battle so I could write a side-by-side battle royale-type prediction column like I did last week with Indy and Cunts in the Cunty, but unfortunately the reviews settled this one before it started. Fuck You Panda has a metacritic score of 72 – a fairly high number for a stupid kids movie – which means that it’ll be a big hit. Forget how stupid it looks, how unfunny Jack Black suddenly is, when kids movies get good reviews they blow up.

Because his movies don’t perform well overseas I think we tend to underestimate what a massive star Sandler is at the domestic Box Office, particularly in the opening frame – do you realize that, barring any surprises, Zohan will be Sandler’s 9th movie to open with more than $30 million? That is a mind-boggling number. For example, Eddie Murphy is the biggest box office star in terms of total gross – his movies have made over $3.4 billion – yet only 5 of his movies have opened at +30. Tom Hanks is second on the overall list yet only 3 of his movie have opened at 30 or more. Incredible statistic.

Box Office Recap


While we won’t have hard numbers until 4pm or so today, here’s what we know so far:

1. SATC = $55 million (my prediction: $55 million)
2. Indy 4 = $46 million (my prediction: $58 million)

Two things I got wrong:

1.
Indy’s decline in week 2.
I estimated that the fourquel (is that a word? It should be) would drop about 42% and register about $58 million, it looks like it dropped by a much larger margin, roughly 54%, whipping up about $46.

2.
Estimating that Indy would top SATC.
I thought it would be close but that Indy would inch past the four whores, I was wrong. SATC came on strong and pulled in about $10 more. I correctly predicted SATC’s opening (more on that in a second) but whiffed on Indy’s week 2.

Something that I got so ridiculously right that I never want to see anyone questioning me ever again:

$55 million. $55 million! Do you realize that I predicted the exact amount of SATC’s opening?! Are you kidding me? That’s right Anonymous, Anonymous, Only Chick Not Seeing Dumb Slut Movie This Weekend and Mandi, suck it!


Update on Indy’s Quest to make an assload of money:

Last week, I wrote about the groundbreaking deal that Ford, Lucas and Spielberg signed to make Indy 4, here’s the latest update.

Indy 4
Production: $185
Marketing / distribution: $115
Total Budget: $300
Worldwide Gross to Date: $482
Net Profit: $182

The Players:
Paramount: $110
Ford: $24
Spielberg: $24
Lucas: $24

Indiana Jones and the Quest to Make an Assload of Money


Harrison Ford, George Lucas and Steven Spielberg signed an unprecedented deal with Paramount to make Indy 4. According to this article, the trio agreed to wave all upfront fees for a massive chunk of the profits. Now, that isn’t rare, the big guns like Will Smith, Tom Hanks and Johnny Deep do this all the time – here’s what’s groundbreaking about this deal: Paramount gets to keep the first $400 million – once that threshold is crossed Lucas and the gang will take 87.5 cents of every dollar thereafter. Think about for a second. Indy 4 is poised to be one of the biggest movies of all time – top 25 worldwide is almost definite – meaning that the golden trio have the potential to earn as much as $200 million each.

At first glance, you have to think that the filmmakers are fleecing the studio on this one, but are they? The production budget for Indy 4 was $185 million; let’s tack on another $115 for marketing and distribution, putting Paramount’s total investment at $300 million. That essentially means that Paramount is guaranteed a minimum of $100 million – a pretty nice chunk of change. If the film absolutely flops and maxes out at $500 million worldwide (which is still massive, but would go down as a major bomb given expectations) – the studio would still walk away with $112 million and the three stars with close to $30 each. Everybody wins in this scenario.

What I’m really fascinated to see is whether or not George, Steven and Harrison can all individually make more than the studio (I don’t know how DVDs are split – which will most likely swing things back to Paramount’s favor, but we’ll save that for another time). It isn’t rare for one star to make more than the studio – Tom Cruise used to pull this all the time back in the day – but 3? Now, that’d really be something. A&M will be tracking the numbers for the next few weeks and see how this all plays out. Here’s where we’re out so far:

Indy 4
Production: $185
Marketing / distribution: $115
Total Budget: $300
Worldwide Gross to Date: $297
Gross Profit: -$3

The Players:
Paramount: -$3
Ford: 0
Spielberg: 0
Lucas: 0

Box Office Results: 9/21/07

1.
Movie: Resident Evil 3
Prediction: $18 million
Actual: $23.5 million (rank: 1)

Nerds! Never underestimate the value of nerd money!

2.
Movie: Good Luck Chuck
Prediction: $12 million
Actual: $13.5 million (rank: 2)

Alba! Never underestimate the drawing power of Alba in underwear. Did you know that Alba’s been in 7 movies and her average opening weekend is over $25 million? Crazy huh?

3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8 million
Actual: $7 million (rank 3)

Close enough.

4.
Movie: Sydney White
Prediction: $7.5 million
Actual: $5 million (rank 6)

Whatever.

5.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $6 million
Actual: $6 million (rank 4)

Cool.

6.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5 million (rank 7)

Sweet.

7.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $3 million
Actual: $3 million (rank 8)

Nice.

Movie: Eastern Promises
Prediction: N/A
Actual: $5.5 million (rank #5)

Whoops. Totally chucked this one and forgot this was expanding to 1,500 screens last weekend.

Box Office Prediction: 9/21/07

1.
Movie: Resident Evil 3
Prediction: $18 million

2.
Movie: Good Luck Chuck
Prediction: $12 million

3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8 million

4.
Movie: Sydney White
Prediction: $7.5 million

5.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $6 million

6.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $5 million

7.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $3 million

*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.

Summer Box Office Review

With the first day of fall tomorrow, let’s officially wrap up the summer movie season by taking a look at the biggest winners and losers of the period. Please note, we’re dealing only with production budgets and domestic grosses, this list would look a lot different if we added marketing to the budget and international grosses to the grand total. Also, we’re counting the summer season as movies that opened between May 1 and August 31.

All told, summer 2007 was a monster year with 4 movies crossing the $300 million mark (Spidey 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3 and Transformers) and a fifth (Harry Potter 5) missing the mark by $10 million. All in all, 17 movies crossed the coveted $100 million marker (although with inflation and other terms I don’t understand, we may have to raise the bar to $150).

Who made and lost money in the States this summer, let’s take a look:

8 Biggest Winners:

1.
Transformers
Gross: $312 million
Budget: $150 million
Net: $162 million

2.
Shrek 3
Gross: $321 million
Budget: $160 million
Net: $161 million

3.
Harry Potter 5
Gross: $290 million
Budget: $150 million
Net: $140 million

4.
Knocked Up
Gross: $150 million
Budget: $30 million
Net: $120 million

5.
Simpsons
Gross: $180 million
Budget: $75 million
Net: $105 million

6.
Bourne 3
Gross: $215 million
Budget: $110 million
Net: $105 million

7.
Superbad
Gross: $115 million
Budget: $20 million
Net: $95 million

8.
Spiderman 3
Gross: $336 million
Budget: $258 million
Net: $78 million

5 Biggest Losers:

1.
Evan Almighty
Gross: $100 million
Budget: $175 million
Net: -$75 million

2.
Stardust
Gross: $30 million
Budget: $70 million
Net: -$40 million

3.
Rush Hour 3
Gross: $135 million (as of time of print)
Budget: $140 million
Net: -$5 million

4.
Fantastic Four 2
Gross: $131 million
Budget: $130 million
Net: $1 million

5.
Pirates 3
Gross: $308 million
Budget: $300 million
Net: $8 million

Box Office Results: 9/14/07

1.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $10 million
Actual: $8.7 million (rank #3)

Honestly how funny is the premise of this movie and how dumb do the trailers look? This should have been the first movie to not have a trailer, just advertise with a poster that lists the plot and the cast and that’s it. I like everyone in this movie and have absolutely no plans to see it.

2.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $9 million
Actual: $9 million (rank #2)

Anyone seen this? Any good? Did you see that Russell Crowe gave a speech to the Michigan football team before they played Notre Dame? How weird is that? I wonder what character he was when he gave the speech? Did Bud White try to convince the squad that Notre Dame was a bunch of wife beaters? Did he stick a pillow under his shirt and have Jeffrey Wigand pretend that Notre Dame was poisoning the world with their cigarettes, called Jesattes? Or (hopefully) did he throw on the John Nash makeup and scribble plays on the window all while muttering incoherently to himself about a little girl? One can only hope…

3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8.5 million
Actual: $13.5 million (rank# 1)

Well, after her last three movies we now know that lesbians like to see Jodie trapped in a small room (Panic Room), going bat shit on a plane (Flight Plan), and tracking down bank robbers (Inside Man). After a pretty solid opening for this movie, we know lesbians like to see Jodie get revenge too. Cool.

4.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5.1 million (rank# 4)

$111 million and counting, I’m not even mad, that’s amazing. How did you do that?

5.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $4.5 million
Actual: $4.8 million (rank# 6)

Sure.

6.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $3.5 million
Actual: $4 million (rank# 7)

Keep’s on trucking.

7.
Movie: Dragon Wars
Prediction: $3 million
Actual: $5 million (rank # 5)

Who cares?

*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.

Box Office Prediction: 9/14/07

1.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $10 million

2.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $9 million

3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8.5 million

4.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $5 million

5.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $4.5 million

6.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $3.5 million

7.
Movie: Dragon Wars
Prediction: $3 million

*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.